WHERE THE RACE NARROWS
Today is the big day where a handful of states cast their votes and caucus, sending hundreds of delegates towards a candidate’s direction and potentially solidifying the primaries. The Democrats are a two candidate race, but the Republican side is still very crowded. Though Donald Trump is in a clear lead, if someone could make huge gains on Super Tuesday, everything could change.
Who needs to win the most? For Democrats, it’s Senator Bernie Sanders. Even with some solid performances in early states, he is losing ground on delegates because of some questionable caucus practices and the existence of superdelegates. Senator Sanders needs to make huge gains to win a game that’s rigged against him.
For Republicans, above all, Senator Ted Cruz has the most on the line. Governor John Kasich is banking on Ohio, so his gains are not expected that day. Ben Carson is already done, and as long as Senator Marco Rubio continues to hang on to second, he’ll continue being seen as the anti-Trump. Senator Cruz desperately needs to change the narrative. Persistent third place finishes and polling third is no place for a contender, and everything really comes down to Texas. If Senator Cruz loses Texas, he’s done.
NOTE: RealClearPolitics does not have recent polling data compiled for Alaska (28 delegates), American Samoa (9 GOP delegates, 10 Democratic delegates), Arkansas (40 GOP delegates, 37 Democratic delegates), Colorado (37 GOP delegates, 79 Democratic delegates), and Minnesota (38 GOP delegates, 93 Democratic delegates).
DEMOCRATS (60 delegates): Hillary Clinton
REPUBLICANS (50 delegates): Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton is running away with polling at this point. Recent Monmouth polls have her up 48 points on Senator Sanders, making this an easy contest.
It’s no different on the Republican side. Monmouth has Trump up 23 points, whereas Master Image has him up 17 points and OpinionSavvy 13 points. It’s important to note that the Monmouth poll is the most recent and OpinionSavvy was released on February 26th.
DEMOCRATS (116 delegates): Hillary Clinton
REPUBLICANS (76 delegates): Donald Trump
Like with Alabama, this is fairly straightforward with the polls. NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling has Clinton up 34 points on Senator Sanders.
DEMOCRATS (116 delegates): Hillary Clinton
REPUBLICANS (42 delegates): Donald Trump
Polls paint another victory for Clinton, but closer than the previous two states. Emerson has her at an 11 point lead. Earlier polling from the state had it closer, but down the stretch Clinton seems to be pulling away with it.
As for Republicans, there doesn’t appear to even be a contest. Polls have long been projecting a blowout and brand new polling from Emerson shows Trump with an enormous 31 point lead over a distant second place with Senator Marco Rubio.
DEMOCRATS (42 delegates): Bernie Sanders
REPUBLICANS (43 delegates): Donald Trump
According to brand new polling from Monmouth, Senator Sanders has the lead. Barely, with five points.
DEMOCRAT (76 delegates): Hillary Clinton
REPUBLICAN (58 delegates): Donald Trump
This appears to firmly be in the bag for Clinton and Trump, but recent polling is slim. NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls have Clinton winning by 26 points and Trump by 18.
DEMOCRAT (252 delegates): Hillary Clinton
REPUBLICANS (155 delegates): Donald Trump
For Democrats, this appears to be an easy slam dunk for Clinton. According to new polls from Emerson, she is up 42 points.
For Republicans, this becomes complicated as the polls are scattered. Some have Senator Cruz running away with the primary, while some have it close with Trump. It’s all over the place to a point where I devoted an entire article to it.
As I wrote in “The Unpredictability of the Texas Republican Primary“, this is all over the place. In a nutshell, the polls that have Senator Cruz ahead only called previous primary participants. The polls that have it as a close race poll random residents, therefore factoring in new voters as well. This is significant because of the high turnout of new voters so far this cycle. For a greater breakdown of it, please check out the article linked at the start of this paragraph.
DEMOCRATS (26 delegates): Bernie Sanders
REPUBLICANS (16 delegates): Donald Trump
This really isn’t a surprise for Democrats. Castleton University gives Senator Sanders a 74 point lead in his home state. Surprise? Not at all.
For Republicans, the Castleton University gives Trump a 15 point lead.
DEMOCRATS (110 delegates): Hillary Clinton
REPUBLICANS (49 delegates): Donald Trump
CBS News/YouGov polls give Clinton 20 point lead and Trump a 13 point lead. Another state, another point of victory for them both.
THE WEDNESDAY DUST CLEARING
To be sure, it will be an explosive day. When the dust clears on Wednesday, we will have a clear picture of this race.
Hillary Clinton will likely be comfortably in the lead ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders. Even states he’s pulled off, she’s come out on top because of questionable caucus practices and superdelegates swinging the balance. Fair or not, it’s whats happening. He can’t win a race when the deck isn’t stacked in his favor.
Though at this point, the allegations of corruption may not even be relevant. Polling is consistently showing Clinton on top in a number of states.
As for Trump, he already commands a comfortable lead. After Senator Cruz claimed Iowa, the rest of the race has been Trump’s while the Texas Senator is stuck in third. All the polls point to a blowout for a day that might as well be called Super Trumpsday.
The calls for Governor John Kasich and Ben Carson to drop out will grow even louder, but Governor Kasich has already indicated he’s staying in the race until Ohio votes. Additionally, if Senator Cruz does lose his home state of Texas, he is likely done and should drop out.
One thing is for certain however: the respective party nominations are going to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.