Against all odds, Donald Trump is winning. Not only has Donald Trump been winning, he will continue to win. The political pundits and party leaders who all predicted the fall of Trump many times over were wrong and the angry populists, outraged conservatives, and otherwise disaffected are in control. This is doomsday for every moderate Republican.
But Donald Trump has a roof, right? His support can’t grow? It doesn’t matter, because this race isn’t clearing out any time soon.
The hubris of everyone else involved will enable the continued rise of Donald Trump and will eventually hand him the nomination. The anti-Trump vote is divided because you have three candidates that think they can beat Trump.
This is best case scenario for Trump, and it’s happening.
The Nevada caucus was a predictable victory for Trump, but at 45%, he literally almost walked away with half of the vote. Senator Marco Rubio came in second with 23.9% and Senator Ted Cruz in third with 21.4%. Combining those two would only put them a fraction of a percentage point ahead of Trump.
Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, we might as well begin calling it Super Trumpsday. Senator Cruz is leading one state, his home state of Texas, and Senator Rubio is leading nothing.
Though its important to note that some states still don’t have any polls, according to polling data compiled by RealClearPolitics.
As I noted in my Nevada predictions article yesterday, this is Trump and Rubio’s game going forward:
The biggest prize that day, Texas’s 155 delegates, is currently polling with a lead for Senator Ted Cruz.
Current frontrunner Donald Trump is set to win big too, however. Trump has a 9 point lead in Georgia, who has 76 delegates. He also has a 6 point lead in Virginia, who has 49 delegates. Massachusetts is huge for Trump as well, where he polls an astonishing 34 points in the lead for their 34 delegates.
But like with everything else this bizarre primary season, the bigger story may be in the second place finish. Senator Cruz may have a significant lead in Texas, but Trump is right behind him for second and Senator Marco Rubio is far back in third.
In Georgia, Virginia, and Massachusetts, Senator Rubio is in second place with his colleague, Senator Cruz, in third.
Since that article was published, additional Super Tuesday polling data has not been released. New Jersey, which gives out 51 delegates on June 7, has polling data out from Rutgers-Eagleton. This has Trump up 27% above his rival at 38%, with Senator Rubio in at 11% and Senator Cruz at 10%.
Ohio, which gives out 66 delegates on March 15th, also has Trump in the lead by 5% at 31% overall, according to Quinnipac. This is that rare state where Senator Cruz, who is at 21%, is ahead of Senator Rubio, who only has 13%. But like with almost everything else, Senator Cruz is still in third, with Governor John Kasich in at 26%.
A lot of states still are there, but momentum is clear on Trump’s side. Furthermore, as long as this race remains divided, he only stands to gain. The hubris of both Senator Cruz and Rubio will keep them in the race, further dividing the vote.
Prepare for it, Republicans. Donald Trump will be your nominee.