Nevada caucus/South Carolina primary predictions

THE RACE NARROWS

For Democrats, this race is shaping up to be a nightmare reminiscent to 2012 when Republicans were faced with a grassroots fight from supporters of former Congressman Ron Paul. Senator Bernie Sanders, though ideologically different from Paul, represents the same anti-establishment sentiment that could burn Clinton come the general election.

Republicans are finally thinning down and have lost three candidates since New Hampshire. Though the race has six candidates, it’s honestly down to three: Donald Trump, and Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.

The longer Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and John Kasich stay in, the more complicated this primary becomes. All three, especially Bush, could represent a bump to someone like Senator Rubio.

Nevada won’t be a game changer for Democrats, but we can only hope South Carolina will send a few Republicans packing.

NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS:

1. Hillary Clinton
2. Bernie Sanders

Perception is on nobody’s side at this point. Clinton may be winning a complicated numbers game thanks to superdelegates, but Sanders will hang on to what his supporters believe to be an increasingly unfair fight.

Clinton wins, the race drags on. Nothing really matters here.

SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY:

1. Donald Trump
2. Marco Rubio
3. Ted Cruz
4. Jeb Bush
5. Ben Carson
6. John Kasich

At this point, the race is Donald Trump versus the guy who edges the other out for the anti-Trump title.

Donald Trump has been dominating the polls and has South Carolina in the bag.

Second place? Senator Marco Rubio, but barely. Though honestly, Senator Ted Cruz coming a hair ahead of his Senate colleague for second isn’t entirely impossible either.

Bush, Carson and Governor Kasich should all drop out, but likely won’t.

The only impact South Carolina could have is forcing some more people out of the race.

GOING FORWARD

Bush represents a potential boost for Senator Rubio, as his supporters aren’t likely to go elsewhere. The longer he stays in, the longer he impacts the race as a minor spoiler.

If Bush isn’t out after South Carolina, he likely will be after Nevada, where RealClearPolitics has him polling right around 1%.

Chris Dixon

About Chris Dixon

Chris Dixon is a libertarian-leaning writer. In addition to writing "Undercover Porcupine", he is also the Managing Editor for The Liberty Conservative and writes for Cleat Geeks and Medium.